The Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) – September 8, 2017
September 7, 2017 | Doug Shain
Welcome to the Longball (Daily HuLo GPP Plays) for September 8, 2017. For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Doug Shain and I’ve been a part of The Fake Sports team for the last three years (NHL, NFL, MLB). I’ve been playing season long fantasy for over 25 years and DFS for the last 5 years. Besides being blessed with the job to write for this site, I’m pretty much just like the rest of you. I’m a teacher that likes to play DFS as a way to relax and maybe make some money along the way. I don’t really look at cash games and I’m not terribly interested in min-cashing a GPP. I want the big money. Because of this, I tend to have a high level of variance in my play. I know that I have to take some risks with my lineup in order to move up in a field of thousands of players.
Over the course of my time at the Fake Sports I’ve come be known as the HuLo guy. HuLo is a term I invented (fine, my dad came up with it) that means High Upside, Low Ownership. It’s similar in concept to a contrarian play. With the way that I play DFS, and the way that most of the general public plays DFS, we are going to have to find a few HuLo plays along the way to take down a GPP.
For this year’s version of this article I’m going to try to put a strong emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint of how to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum.
I’m a big proponent of playing short slates (Turbo/Late, etc.) and a lot of my HuLo picks are going to play really well on those types of slates. Make sure to keep that in mind when considering full slates and shorter ones.
One big thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big. To be clear, I’m not advocating that you use a solely HuLo lineup. I’m merely giving you something more to think about; plays that can supplement the chalk that you are going to use in your lineups.
***Just wanted to throw it out there that I’m going to try to change the format up a little bit for the Longball for the time being. In theory, it will combine my favorite parts of the two formats I’ve used this year: a HuLo chart and then musings on how I construct my sample lineups. The lineups are still not optimal lineups, so don’t mistake them for that, but I think it’s important that you get a closer look into how we can use these HuLo plays to construct the lineups. So instead of spouting off stats that you can easily look up (and don’t worry, I won’t totally avoid stats) I’ll spend my time talking about how to best attack the slate using the HuLo picks. Any feedback is more than welcome.***
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17) to keep the conversation rolling. On to the picks!
|HuLo Pitchers||HuLo Stacks||Sample Lineups|
|Lucas Giolito (CWS/RHP) vs San Francisco Giants: $8.3k DK/$7.7k FD||Milwaukee Brewers @ John Lackey (CHC/RHP)||Fanduel: Lucas Giolito ($7700), Jason Castro ($2100), Paul Goldschmidt ($4200), Brian Dozier ($4400), Jake Lamb ($3000), Ehire Andrianza ($2400), JD Martinez ($4000), AJ Pollock ($3800), Byron Buxton ($3400)|
|Jimmy Nelson (MIL/RHP) @ Chicago Cubs: $8.7k DK/$8.7k FD||Colorado Rockies @ Yu Darvish (LAD/RHP)||Draft Kings : Lucas Giolito ($8300), Luke Weaver ($8400), Roberto Perez ($3000), Carlos Santana ($4700), Jose Altuve ($4700), Derek Dietrich ($2800), Francisco Lindor ($5300), Austin Jackson ($4300), George Springer ($4900), Yandy Diaz ($3400)|
|Drew Pomeranz (BOS/LHP) vs Tampa Bay Rays: $7.7k DK/$8.3k FD||Texas Rangers vs Masahiro Tanaka (NYY/RHP)||Fantasy Draft: Luke Weaver ($16400), Max Scherzer ($25800), Nolan Arenado ($8100), Neil Walker ($7200), Jose Abreu ($6800), Charlie Blackmon ($8400), Carlos Gonzalez ($6900), Gerardo Parra ($6800), Mike Moustakas ($7200), Yoan Moncada ($6300)|
|Mike Clevinger (CLE/RHP) vs Baltimore Orioles: $7.8k DK/$8.4k FD||New York Mets vs Amir Garrett (CIN/LHP)|
|Chalk Pitchers: Max Scherzer, Ervin Santana, Patrick Corbin, Luke Weaver, Colin McHugh||Chalk Stacks: Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Houston Astros|
I love Luke Weaver and I fully intended to use him in this lineup. Then I saw his price ($9.0k) and I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Almost every other pitcher that I liked today was priced cheaper than Weaver and I just can’t pay up for him when I know that the ownership is going to be high. So, despite arguing with myself about this for a long while, I decided that my next best shot would be Lucas Giolito. He was outstanding in his last start (10 strikeouts!) and today’s matchup is about as good as it gets. He’s facing a terrible Giants offense that is going from a series to Coors Field to whatever they call the park in Chicago. Even with an added DH, this is a bad spot for San Francisco. I’m very encouraged that Giolito has gone 6+ innings in all three of his starts this year. He’s only going to get better and I expect another solid start today (maybe 6IP/8K/2ER? That’d be perfectly acceptable). With his price only at $7.7k I have left myself a ton of room to make sure I have some bats that I’m comfortable with. Arizona, facing Jordan Lyles at Chase Field, is shockingly inexpensive today. We can use them and still have a lot of room left for another solid stack. Paul Goldschmidt is expected to come back today so he’s sitting in my lineup. If he doesn’t play then that gives you more money to spend up elsewhere. The second stack that I chose to run with is the Minnesota Twins. I’m not able to use an optimal stack due to some budget constrictions but I’m happy with a core of Dozier and Buxton and then building around that. If Adrianza doesn’t end up playing, I’d pivot over to a cheap SS that is (maybe a Rojas or a Crawford or an Aybar). Once I got past my Weaver obsession, this lineup fell right into place.
Just like yesterday, where the strategy didn’t quite work out, I’m able to easily fit in a big stack and my two favorite pitchers on this site. I knew going in that I was going to fit in Luke Weaver no matter what because I’d always be able to offset his cost a bit with a value pitcher. To my surprise, I was able to not drop down too far and still get Giolito without giving up any bats that I wanted. Back to Weaver, I love the kid. Over his last four starts he has struck out 37 batters in 26 innings pitched (12.8 K/9) while giving up only 6 ER (2.08 ERA). That’s elite level stuff. Pittsburgh is not an elite offense. I have full confidence that we are getting a rock solid start out of Weaver here, and we are getting it at a price that I can live with (although I do miss is $6.0k days). Teaming mid-tier guys like Weaver and Giolito allowed me to go big with a Cleveland full stack and an Astros mini-stack. Cleveland is out of control right now and it really doesn’t matter who you start from that team. They are all hitting the ball really well. Did I mention that they are facing Wade Miley? He’s so bad and Cleveland should once again put up a big number for you. As for Houston, I’ll take Altuve and Springer against Cotton all day long. To get them both for under $10k seems like a pretty good bargain. I definitely didn’t target Derek Dietrich but he’s on a pretty good offense and has a little bit of pop. For $2.8k, I don’t see myself doing a whole lot better than what he can bring to this team.
As usual, I got a little wonky with this lineup. I wanted to pair up Mad Max and Luke Weaver and see what I could do with that. I’m really happy with my results as I actually targeted the Rockies as a potential value play early in my research. Yu Darvish has been highly inconsistent since his arrival in LA and with the discount we get on Rockies bats today, I’m more than willing to roll the dice on us getting “bad” Yu. If he’s off his game, Colorado is a team that can hammer him with power from both sides of the plate. I’m particularly interested in using Carlos Gonzalez; he’s turned his bat around recently, is cheap, and has the platoon advantage in this matchup. I was equally pleased to see that the White Sox were priced down today against Matt Moore. CWS hits lefties well, nobody more so than Jose Abreu. To get him at $6.8k was a real steal and it allowed me the freedom to get my pitchers. I’m pairing him with Yoan Moncada in the hopes that Moncada gets on base and Abreu drives him in. For my final spot I just went with the guy who had the most power at a price I could afford and that was Mike Moustakas. I don’t love the matchup but Moose is a bomber and that works well with this team.
Come play me in a free game over at Fantasy Draft for bragging rights.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17.