MLB DFS Value Plays: August 26th August 26, 2016  |  Matt Terelle


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Looking for some value plays to help fill out those lineups today? You came to the right place! These are some of my favorite values for today across DraftKings and FanDuel. On most days I will try to outline one pitcher and four hitters who are shaping up as excellent value plays for the upcoming slate. Please note there isn’t a specific price cut off, instead, I will try to highlight players who should outperform their prices on a given day. Let’s get to today’s values.

 

Mike Montgomery (P) – Chicago Cubs

@ Los Angeles Dodgers

$5,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

As we get deeper in the season, value pitchers have become more scarce as the pricing tends to stabilize. Montgomery has a lowered price because he has been worked out of the bullpen for most of the season. He has pitched well on the year, posting a 2.41 ERA/3.35 SIERA over 74.2 innings of work. The Dodgers have been one of the worst teams in the league against left-handed pitching, ranking last in batting average and wOBA and 28th in ISO. Montgomery may be on a pitch count after spending much of the season in the bullpen, but at his prices he should be able to hit value even in a shortened outing.

 

A.J. Pollock (OF) – Arizona Diamondbacks

vs. Cincinnati Reds (SP-Brandon Finnegan, LHP)

$3,300 DK, N/A FD

Pollock is set to make his 2016 debut tonight after missing most of the year with a fractured elbow. He played well during his minor league rehab stint and should be safe to insert into lineups tonight. He gets a solid matchup right off the bat as he will face off against Brandon Finnegan. Finnegan has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to rack up a .344 wOBA and giving up 2.11 home runs per nine innings.

 

 

Carlos Correa (SS) – Houston Astros

vs. Tampa Bay Rays (SP-Drew Smyly, LHP)

$3,400 DK, $3,900 FD

Correa is in a good spot against Rays starter Drew Smyly today. Smyly is one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in the leagues, ranking first in the league with a 48.1% fly ball rate. That has led to him being ranked among the league leaders in home runs per nine innings allowed to right-handed bats a 1.57. Smyly also gets a big park downgrade as he will be away from pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The left-hander is allowing a much higher batting average and wOBA on the road this season. Correa has posted a .214 ISO against left-handed pitching over his career.

 

Troy Tulowitzki (SS) – Toronto Blue Jays

vs. Minnesota Twins (SP-Pat Dean, LHP)

$3,700 DK, $3,000 FD

Tulowitzki is priced extremely favorably for a game that has a huge 10.0 run over/under. As a direct result of that over/under, the Blue Jays have a 6.1 implied team run total, the highest on the slate. Tulo has been scuffling a bit over the past week, but his matchup with Twins starter Pat Dean is too good to pass up. Dean is allowing right-handed batters to accumulate a .394 wOBA and .245 ISO in 46 innings of work this season. Also consider Kevin Pillar as a value outfielder.

 

 

Rajai Davis (OF) – Cleveland Indians

@ Texas Rangers (SP-Martin Perez, LHP)

$4,800 DK, $3,000 FD

Davis remains very expensive on DraftKings and vastly underpriced on FanDuel. Rangers starter Martin Perez has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing a .340 wOBA. In addition, Perez is a very ground ball heavy pitcher, allowing a 53.3% ground ball rate. This will benefit speedy players such as Davis who will see additional chances to leg out infield singles and hit grounders through the infield. Davis is ranked fourth in the league with 33 stolen bases.

Thanks for reading, be sure to follow me on Twitter @supermt. Good luck with your lineups!

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