MLB DFS Value Plays: September 12th September 12, 2016  |  Matt Terelle


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Looking for some value plays to help fill out those lineups today? You came to the right place! These are some of my favorite values for today across DraftKings and FanDuel. On most days I will try to outline one pitcher and four hitters who are shaping up as excellent value plays for the upcoming slate. Please note there isn’t a specific price cut off, instead, I will try to highlight players who should outperform their prices on a given day. Let’s get to today’s values.

 

Gerrit Cole (P) – Pittsburgh Pirates

@ Philadelphia Phillies

$7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel

Cole is expected to return from the DL to make a road start against the Phillies. While I usually don’t prefer targeting pitchers coming off injury, the matchup is right for Cole to hit the ground running. Vegas has Philadelphia’s implied total set at just 3.7 runs, third-lowest on the slate. The reason for optimism stems from Philadelphia’s ineffectiveness against right-handed pitching as they rank just 29th in batting average and wOBA, and 19th in ISO.

 

Jose Bautista (OF) – Toronto Blue Jays

vs. Tampa Bay Rays (SP-Jake Odorizzi, RHP)

$3,800 DK, $3,600 FD

Bautista has great pricing for his matchup against Rays starter Jake Odorizzi, a pitcher who has been easier on right-handed batters over his career. Since 2013, Odorizzi is allowing a .331 wOBA and .183 ISO to right-handed batters, while Bautista has racked up a .369 wOBA and .236 ISO over that same span. The Blue Jays have the second-highest implied run total on the slate at 5.0 runs.

 

 

Adam Duvall (OF) – Cincinnati Reds

vs. Milwaukee Brewers (SP-Wily Peralta, RHP)

$3,900 DK, $2,800 FD

Duvall is enjoying a true breakout campaign, blasting 30 home runs and adding 87 RBI for the Reds. He has tailed off a bit over the past few weeks, which is what has brought his prices down. He has a plus matchup on tap today and, as such, is a solid GPP play. Brewers pitcher Wily Peralta has not been very good this season, allowing a .371 wOBA and 1.67 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. Most of Duvall’s success has stemmed from his ability to crush right-handed pitching as he has a .272 ISO against them this season.

 

Victor Martinez (C/1B) – Detroit Tigers

vs. Minnesota Twins (SP-Ervin Santana, RHP)

$3,300 DK, $3,400 FD

Martinez continues to be a great source of value, even with him slumping a bit over the past couple weeks. He is still a great hitter who bats cleanup for a Tigers lineup that can be explosive. As an added bonus, Martinez has excellent career numbers against today’s starter. In 34 at-bats against Ervin Santana, Martinez is slashing .294/.314/.471 with two home runs. This is another good game to target with the Tigers having an implied run total of 5.0 runs.

 

 

Justin Turner (3B) – Los Angeles Dodgers

@ New York Yankees (SP-Bryan Mitchell, RHP)

$4,700 DK, $3,200 FD

Turner shapes up as a great value on FanDuel, where he’s just $3,200. He will face off against Yankees right-hander Bryan Mitchell today. Turner has crushed right-handed pitching over his career, putting up a .359 wOBA and .174 ISO. Mitchell himself is allowing right-handed batters to post a .359 wOBA in his career. Look for a high-scoring game here as the over/under is set at 9.0 runs.

Thanks for reading, be sure to follow me on Twitter @supermt. Good luck with your lineups!

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