The DFS Daily Dozen 8.12.15
August 12, 2015 | Zach Jacobson
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the DFS Daily Dozen! We have a split slate of games today and I’ll be focusing solely on the evening one. If you have questions about the picks or would just like to talk baseball, you can find me on Twitter @zatchj62.
Jacob deGrom, SP: There’s a reason deGrom is priced as the second most expensive pitcher today: he faces Colorado away from Coors field. The Rockies are by no means a bottom-tier hitting team, but deGrom needs to be played in a matchup like this. He’s 15% cheaper than Kershaw and shouldn’t get outpaced by him tonight.
Jorge de la Rosa, SP: On the other side of the Rockies-Mets matchup we have Jorge de la Rosa, who is my favorite pitching play of the day. The Mets are terrible against left-handed pitching, ranking 2nd worst among all teams in K% vs. lefties. De la Rosa is no slouch when it comes to strikeouts, and tonight he is debatably a top five DFS pitcher that is priced in the bottom five. A pitching salary this cheap allows so much flexibility with the rest of your lineup.
Gerrit Cole/Michael Wacha, SP: You can’t go wrong with either of these guys. It’s likely that Cole will outscore Wacha, but it will probably not be by enough to justify the salary differential between the two. It’s worth noting that the Pirates strikeout 1.6% more than the Cardinals vs. righties.
Danny Salazar, SP: This pick is predicated almost solely on Salazar’s price; he’s a steal for $8,700 on FanDuel. It’s not a great matchup against the Yankees, but Salazar’s strikeout ability means the upside is huge.
Mike Trout, OF: This play didn’t work out so well yesterday, but since when do we look at a one game sample size? The best player in baseball faces lefty John Danks in a hitter-friendly ballpark and somehow isn’t the most expensive hitter on the board tonight.
Jose Bautista, OF: It’s rare that I’ll recommend two elite options in the same day, but the matchup is just too good. You could take Donaldson or Tulowitzki here, but the former is just too expensive and I prefer Bautista over either.
Chris Colabello, OF: Colabello is a nice value play today against Aaron Brooks. You’re paying sub-$3,000 for someone with a career .333 wOBA vs. RHP who bats in the middle of a stellar Blue Jays lineup.
Brian Dozier, 2B: Don’t play Ian Kinsler. Seriously. I don’t know if you were considering it, but I’m preemptively nixing that consideration. He’s currently the most expensive second baseman because of his recent performance, but a player without much power or speed in a currently average lineup doesn’t deserve your DFS attention, and that’s coming from a Michigan native. Go with someone like Dozier instead. He’s cheaper and gets a juicier matchup against Nick Martinez, and tonight Target Field is going to be one of the warmer ballparks temperature-wise.
Miguel Sano, 3B: Almost everything I said about Sano yesterday applies today: We’re all well aware of Sano’s tremendous power, and tonight he gets to face [Nick Martinez]…There is also zero risk attached to Sano’s $2,800 FanDuel price tag, which is [22nd] among third baseman (!).
Prince Fielder, 1B: Here are a few Fielder Facts (patent pending): 1) Fielder owns a .404 career wOBA against right-handed pitching, 2) Fielder has walked more than he’s struck out against righties in 2015, and 3) Fielder faces unimpressive righty Mike Pelfrey tonight.
Alcides Escobar, SS: Escobar hits at the top of a great lineup and has the lefty-righty advantage against Daniel Norris, a young pitcher with command issues. Outside of maybe Tulowitzki, I don’t think I’d bother with a high-priced shortstop today.
Josh Reddick, OF: With a $2,500 salary that seems to be a combination of minor back concerns and FanDuel hating platoon players, Reddick is a steal. Don’t hesitate slotting in the lefty against right-handed R.A. Dickey; this is the best value pick you’ll find.
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